Updated on Sunday 24 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 97087 (+1108) 1622612 (+21675) 361239 (+11104) 1164286 (+9463)
United Kingdom 36757 (+282) 258504 (+2960) 1149 (+7) 220598 (+2671)
Italy 32735 (+119) 229327 (+669) 138840 (+2120) 57752 (-1570)
Spain 28678 (+50) 235290 (+466) 150376 (+0) 56236 (+416)
France 28218 (+0) 182036 (+21) 63988 (+2) 89830 (+19)
Brazil 22013 (+965) 347398 (+16508) 142587 (+7157) 182798 (+8386)
Belgium 9237 (+25) 56810 (+299) 15155 (+32) 32418 (+242)
Germany 8261 (+33) 179986 (+276) 159716 (+652) 12009 (-409)
Iran 7359 (+59) 133521 (+1869) 104072 (+1796) 22090 (+14)
Mexico 7179 (+190) 65856 (+3329) 44424 (+2233) 14253 (+906)
Canada 6466 (+106) 85151 (+1204) 43318 (+710) 35367 (+388)
Netherlands 5830 (+23) 45265 (+177) 174 (+0) 39261 (+154)
China 4638 (+0) 84084 (+3) 79335 (+3) 111 (+0)
Turkey 4308 (+32) 155686 (+1186) 117602 (+1491) 33776 (-337)
Sweden 3992 (+67) 33188 (+379) 4971 (+0) 24225 (+312)
India 3868 (+142) 131423 (+6629) 54385 (+2561) 73170 (+3926)
Russia 3388 (+139) 335882 (+9434) 107936 (+8111) 224558 (+1184)
Peru 3373 (+129) 115754 (+4056) 47915 (+3067) 64466 (+860)
Ecuador 3096 (+40) 36258 (+430) 3557 (+0) 29605 (+390)
Switzerland 1905 (+2) 30725 (+18) 28000 (+100) 820 (-84)
Ireland 1604 (+12) 24582 (+76) 21060 (+0) 1918 (+64)
Indonesia 1351 (+25) 21745 (+949) 5249 (+192) 15145 (+732)
Portugal 1302 (+13) 30471 (+271) 7705 (+115) 21464 (+143)
Romania 1176 (+10) 17857 (+145) 11187 (+410) 5494 (-275)
Pakistan 1101 (+34) 52437 (+1743) 16653 (+1452) 34683 (+257)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 337459 (+3937) 5226278 (+99542) 2032850 (+55539)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 336715 ( +2959) 5235500 ( +74741) 2056519 ( +54928)
Mon 25 May 2020 339495 ( +2780) 5307500 ( +72000) 2110927 ( +54408)
Tue 26 May 2020 342100 ( +2606) 5376674 ( +69174) 2164621 ( +53694)
Wed 27 May 2020 344537 ( +2437) 5442960 ( +66287) 2217416 ( +52795)
Thu 28 May 2020 346811 ( +2274) 5506324 ( +63363) 2269139 ( +51723)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 4638 (+0) 84084 (+3) 79335 (+3)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 4625 ( +0) 84054 ( +1) 78175 ( +0)
Mon 25 May 2020 4625 ( +0) 84055 ( +1) 78175 ( +0)
Tue 26 May 2020 4625 ( +0) 84056 ( +1) 78175 ( +0)
Wed 27 May 2020 4625 ( +0) 84056 ( +1) 78176 ( +0)
Thu 28 May 2020 4625 ( +0) 84057 ( +0) 78176 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 28678 (+50) 235290 (+466) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 28038 ( +42) 230284 ( +115) 152343 ( +550)
Mon 25 May 2020 28076 ( +38) 230386 ( +102) 152835 ( +492)
Tue 26 May 2020 28110 ( +34) 230477 ( +91) 153274 ( +439)
Wed 27 May 2020 28140 ( +31) 230558 ( +81) 153664 ( +391)
Thu 28 May 2020 28168 ( +27) 230630 ( +72) 154012 ( +348)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 32735 (+119) 229327 (+669) 138840 (+2120)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 32374 ( +61) 227338 ( +268) 139398 ( +1937)
Mon 25 May 2020 32430 ( +56) 227582 ( +244) 141254 ( +1857)
Tue 26 May 2020 32480 ( +51) 227803 ( +221) 143032 ( +1777)
Wed 27 May 2020 32527 ( +46) 228005 ( +201) 144730 ( +1699)
Thu 28 May 2020 32569 ( +42) 228187 ( +183) 146351 ( +1621)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 36757 (+282) 258504 (+2960) 1149 (+7)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 36399 ( +163) 252013 ( +1206) 1430 ( +44)
Mon 25 May 2020 36547 ( +148) 253123 ( +1110) 1475 ( +45)
Tue 26 May 2020 36681 ( +134) 254144 ( +1021) 1522 ( +47)
Wed 27 May 2020 36802 ( +121) 255083 ( +939) 1570 ( +48)
Thu 28 May 2020 36912 ( +110) 255945 ( +862) 1619 ( +49)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 97087 (+1108) 1622612 (+21675) 361239 (+11104)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 96575 ( +720) 1604111 ( +12462) 341842 ( +8526)
Mon 25 May 2020 97236 ( +661) 1615690 ( +11579) 350300 ( +8458)
Tue 26 May 2020 97841 ( +605) 1626428 ( +10738) 358683 ( +8383)
Wed 27 May 2020 98394 ( +553) 1636368 ( +9940) 366983 ( +8300)
Thu 28 May 2020 98898 ( +504) 1645554 ( +9186) 375194 ( +8210)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 28218 (+0) 182036 (+21) 63988 (+2)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 28295 ( +56) 180335 ( +53) 63914 ( +267)
Mon 25 May 2020 28345 ( +50) 180382 ( +47) 64158 ( +244)
Tue 26 May 2020 28391 ( +45) 180422 ( +41) 64381 ( +223)
Wed 27 May 2020 28432 ( +41) 180458 ( +36) 64584 ( +203)
Thu 28 May 2020 28468 ( +37) 180490 ( +31) 64769 ( +185)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 8261 (+33) 179986 (+276) 159716 (+652)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 8185 ( +18) 178013 ( +185) 159004 ( +624)
Mon 25 May 2020 8200 ( +16) 178180 ( +167) 159586 ( +582)
Tue 26 May 2020 8214 ( +14) 178331 ( +151) 160129 ( +543)
Wed 27 May 2020 8227 ( +12) 178467 ( +136) 160636 ( +507)
Thu 28 May 2020 8238 ( +11) 178590 ( +123) 161109 ( +473)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 5830 (+23) 45265 (+177) 174 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 5783 ( +10) 44362 ( +40) nan ( +nan)
Mon 25 May 2020 5792 ( +9) 44398 ( +36) nan ( +nan)
Tue 26 May 2020 5799 ( +8) 44430 ( +32) nan ( +nan)
Wed 27 May 2020 5806 ( +7) 44459 ( +29) nan ( +nan)
Thu 28 May 2020 5812 ( +6) 44485 ( +26) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 9237 (+25) 56810 (+299) 15155 (+32)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 9248 ( +20) 54882 ( +51) 15045 ( +53)
Mon 25 May 2020 9266 ( +17) 54928 ( +46) 15093 ( +48)
Tue 26 May 2020 9281 ( +15) 54969 ( +41) 15136 ( +43)
Wed 27 May 2020 9295 ( +14) 55006 ( +37) 15175 ( +39)
Thu 28 May 2020 9307 ( +12) 55039 ( +33) 15211 ( +35)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 3992 (+67) 33188 (+379) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 3958 ( +35) 33348 ( +407) 5069 ( +0)
Mon 25 May 2020 3992 ( +34) 33737 ( +389) 5069 ( +0)
Tue 26 May 2020 4024 ( +32) 34109 ( +371) 5069 ( +0)
Wed 27 May 2020 4054 ( +31) 34462 ( +354) 5069 ( +0)
Thu 28 May 2020 4083 ( +29) 34798 ( +336) 5069 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 993 (+11) 20931 (+312) 8977 (+246)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 996 ( +9) 21041 ( +304) 8805 ( +145)
Mon 25 May 2020 1004 ( +9) 21333 ( +292) 8939 ( +134)
Tue 26 May 2020 1013 ( +8) 21612 ( +280) 9062 ( +123)
Wed 27 May 2020 1021 ( +8) 21880 ( +267) 9175 ( +113)
Thu 28 May 2020 1028 ( +8) 22134 ( +254) 9279 ( +104)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 1905 (+2) 30725 (+18) 28000 (+100)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 1892 ( +1) 30446 ( +5) 27778 ( +32)
Mon 25 May 2020 1893 ( +1) 30450 ( +4) 27806 ( +28)
Tue 26 May 2020 1894 ( +1) 30454 ( +4) 27830 ( +24)
Wed 27 May 2020 1895 ( +1) 30457 ( +3) 27852 ( +21)
Thu 28 May 2020 1896 ( +1) 30460 ( +3) 27870 ( +19)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 22013 (+965) 347398 (+16508) 142587 (+7157)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 22407 ( +834) 360058 ( +17593) 152803 ( +9430)
Mon 25 May 2020 23231 ( +824) 378061 ( +18003) 162854 ( +10051)
Tue 26 May 2020 24041 ( +811) 396436 ( +18375) 173566 ( +10712)
Wed 27 May 2020 24836 ( +795) 415139 ( +18703) 184982 ( +11416)
Thu 28 May 2020 25613 ( +777) 434124 ( +18985) 197149 ( +12167)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 23 May 2020 7359 (+59) 133521 (+1869) 104072 (+1796)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 7235 ( +25) 119046 ( +324) 105137 ( +1473)
Mon 25 May 2020 7257 ( +23) 119348 ( +302) 106563 ( +1425)
Tue 26 May 2020 7279 ( +21) 119630 ( +282) 107928 ( +1365)
Wed 27 May 2020 7299 ( +20) 119893 ( +263) 109224 ( +1296)
Thu 28 May 2020 7317 ( +18) 120138 ( +245) 110442 ( +1219)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.